This means the COM port was opened but Grbl isn't responding.
I was able to flash the firmware, but still couldn't connect. I tried another cable, same thing.
I went to Device Manager and saw it had a generic COM port in the Ports section, but there was also a "USB 2.0 Serial" listed under Other devices.
I clicked on it and selected to update driver, chose search automatically and waited. After a few seconds it started to update the driver and on completion it showed USB-SERIAL CH340 was updated successfully and now it appears correctly in the Ports (COM & LPT) section and is gone from Other devices, but more importantly, it works!
I'm guessing that Windows initially installed a generic driver that wasn't fully compatible. I also had to re-scan the COM ports and select the new one that showed up as a different COM port number.